What are the key factors to Ravens-49ers Christmas night showdown? (2024)

By Matt Barrows, David Lombardi and Jeff Zrebiec

The NFL schedule makers got this one right when they picked the Baltimore Ravens to take on the San Francisco 49ers in the prime-time slot on Christmas night. The 8:15 p.m. ET showdown at Levi’s Stadium features the league’s top two teams, and it’s easy to envision this one as a potential Super Bowl preview.

The Ravens (11-3) are riding a four-game winning streak, have clinched a playoff spot and hold the top seed in the AFC playoffs. The 49ers (11-3) have won six in a row and were the NFL’s first team this season to clinch a playoff spot and its division. With wins in at least two of their final three games, they’d secure the NFC’s top seed in the playoffs.

The two quarterbacks, Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson, are the current betting favorites for the MVP award, according to BetMGM, with 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey next in line.

To help set the stage for the Christmas night matchup, The Athletic’s Ravens writer Jeff Zrebiec, and 49ers writers Matt Barrows and David Lombardi joined forces for a roundtable discussion.

The Ravens will win if …

Zrebiec: They control the line of scrimmage. On offense, that means preventing the 49ers’ cadre of talented pass rushers from taking over the game and establishing a rushing attack that controls the clock and keeps the high-powered San Francisco offense on the sideline. Defensively, that means finding ways to disrupt Purdy and make the 49ers work for everything. You could list winning the line of scrimmage as a key to every game, but when you match two teams that pride themselves on physicality, the battle in the trenches feels even more crucial. Of all the challenges the 49ers present, the Ravens’ biggest concern, by far, has to be on the edge. Both Ravens tackles, Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses, are banged up and have struggled in recent weeks. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken better have a good plan for Nick Bosa and company.

The 49ers will win if …

Barrows: They can stop the run. They had trouble doing that last week against the Arizona Cardinals, who had 234 rushing yards, the most San Francisco’s allowed since 2017. The 49ers still were able to thrive because their offense was so prolific and because Kyler Murray delivered them two interceptions, one that was returned 66 yards for a touchdown. The 49ers can’t count on the same sort of Christmas gifts from Jackson, who’s thrown just seven interceptions and whose interception percentage is the lowest it’s been since his MVP season in 2019. The 49ers need to force punts and get the ball into the hands of their playmakers. And that means stopping Gus Edwards on early downs and making sure rabbit-quick Jackson doesn’t gouge them with his legs on third down. The 49ers had a season-high 16 missed tackles against the Cardinals. They can afford only a fraction of that number if they want to defeat the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack.

Who will be the X-factor?

Zrebiec: Can a potential first-team All-Pro be an X-factor? This just feels like a game where Ravens second-year safety Kyle Hamilton has to be one of the best players on the field — like he’s been for most of the season. Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald can deploy Hamilton in so many ways. He can use him to match up against tight end George Kittle. He can keep him in the nickel, where Hamilton has been superb this season. He can use him extensively as a blitzer and have him line up close to the line of scrimmage, so one of the Ravens’ best tacklers can help out against McCaffrey. He can use him as a deep safety in certain looks. Hamilton has been effective in whatever he’s been asked to do this year. Baltimore’s problem is the 49ers have so much elite talent on the offensive side and Hamilton can’t be everywhere.

Lombardi: There will be several potential first-team All-Pros on the field Monday night, so, yes, we’ll say a couple of them can be X-factors. McCaffrey has been an X-factor ever since he first suited up for the 49ers, and he’s in line to highlight the biggest advantage that this offense has: the geometric one. With all the playmakers at their disposal, the 49ers can create space or an open window on most snaps — regardless of the defense they’re facing. It’s up to Purdy to identify where exactly the opening is, and he’s been doing an excellent job delivering the ball on time. McCaffrey, with his ability to threaten via the run and pass, is the fulcrum of the 49ers’ skill position targets. The offense can rely (and has relied) on other players like Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, but the 49ers seem nearly impossible to beat if McCaffrey is threatening and succeeding in both phases of the offense. His gravitational effect on defenses is profound.

How will this game featuring the three favorites — Purdy, Jackson and McCaffrey — impact the MVP race?

Barrows: While this game doesn’t have quite the buildup of the teams’ 2011 meeting — remember the Harbaughcalypse? — there will be a lot of people watching, including the panel of 50 that will vote on this season’s MVP. Perhaps McCaffrey has the most to gain with a big outing, considering quarterbacks have dominated the award over the last decade and it might take some convincing to bestow the honor on a tailback. He had three touchdowns and 187 total yards last week against the Cardinals in a regionally televised game. That certainly helped his cause. But if he has anything remotely similar in front of a national audience against a Ravens defense that ranks second in yards allowed? Well, that would be a powerful closing argument that the MVP award needs to go to a running back for the first time since 2012.

Zrebiec: What’s become ridiculous — and afford me a minute on my soapbox — is that pundits overreact so much to one game. Last week, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott was touted as the clear MVP favorite. He plays poorly against the Buffalo Bills and now, he’s barely in the discussion? That’s not how it should work. This is a body-of-work award. Still, I’d be naive not to think a featured game on Christmas night between two 11-3 teams won’t carry a lot of weight for voters. Because it’s late in the season, it will still be fresh in voters’ minds by the time they start filling out their ballots. So, yes, it will have a significant impact on the MVP race, but both teams will still wake up Tuesday morning with more football to play. If Jackson, Purdy or McCaffrey stars Monday but comes back the next week and plays poorly, I’m sure a new favorite will be crowned by the start of Week 17.

Will we see these teams play again in the Super Bowl in February?

Zrebiec: Sure, why not? With the way they manhandled the Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles, the 49ers are the clear favorite to come out of the NFC. At this point, it probably would be an upset if it’s anybody but them representing the NFC in Las Vegas. The Ravens may not be the clear favorite out of the AFC, but they’ve certainly established themselves as one of the teams to beat. If they wind up securing the AFC’s top seed and the road to the Super Bowl goes through Baltimore, the Ravens are going to be a tough out. They have one of the most dynamic players in the game at quarterback and an offense that has found different ways to win. Their defense has been one of the league’s best all year, and kicker Justin Tucker is as reliable as they come.

Lombardi: The Bills are turning it up and currently hold one of the AFC wild-card spots. The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins are also potential impediments. But the bottom line is that the Ravens are playing historically good football — they’ve put together the 11th-best defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) on record (since 1981) through 14 games — and Jackson is playing at a very high level from the pocket. That should make Baltimore the AFC favorite.

Meanwhile, there’s little question about the 49ers’ status as NFC favorites. As Jeff said, they’ve beaten both the Cowboys and Eagles soundly and have an excellent shot to earn the No. 1 seed, which would clear their path to the Super Bowl. Oh, and the 49ers’ resume so far is historically better than even the Ravens’ — San Francisco has posted the third-highest DVOA on record through 14 games. So the numbers certainly suggest that this might not be the final time the Ravens and 49ers meet this season.

(Top photos of Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy: Michael Owens / Getty Images)

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